COINFLIPS AND HOW TO LOSE THEM...
Online poker: -£203 (-39): CC game: +£13 (-22): APAT: -£50 (_)
Matched betting this month = +£134; This year = +£261
Profit on Month = +£73 Profit on Year = +£21
Poker continues to be a serious struggle at the moment - I can't win a coinflip to save my life and of course that is not a good status report when you are playing mainly tourneys and the odd sng. It's very waring indeed. What the sort of trot I have had since the New Year must be like for someone who is seriously involved in playing poker for a living is horrible to think about.
BUT. I have Matched Betting to save the day. It continues to go swimmingly and as a result I am now marginally up on the year betting wise.
The trouble with having a sustained bad run when you are playing poker is that you start to question the verities that gave you a winning game in the first place and then you get caught out all over again. I'm fully aware of this and am battling to control it, but it's not a lot of fun.
The Cricket Club game the other night had a classic. I was eliminated on the bubble (3 way coin flip - ahead before the flop - lost) and went to join the "cash game" that develops from the losers. Second hand. 4 players. I have AKoff in the BB. Fold, Fold, call from SB. SB I know to be a very loose player, so I raise 5x. Call. Flop 962 rainbow. I go all in. He calls and shows K6 off suit. To add insult to injury, another 6 comes on the turn and that is that. When you are running bad, you are running bad...and players as bad as this make a profit...sigh.
So, a bit out of love with poker at the moment, but I know this will eventually end. At least I finally cashed in a tournament last night, even if it was before the serious end of the money and, inevitably, to a bad beat - four flushed with AQ v AJ.
4 comments:
Well, I'm down $1,500 after two months, although I would get this back eventually from Pokerstars FPPs. Poker is definitely a struggle onlline for everyone at the moment.
On your live hand, you don't say what the stacks are. You say that you shove the flop (which you missed), so I'm guessing something like 20-30BB effective stacks. I think that I would check behind here, unless you are certain villain/fish will call with any two over cards. If that is the case, a shove is still marginal. I'm sure you can work out the maths behind this. Assume that villain calls with any two. He will not fold if he pairs the board or if he has a pair anyway (together, about 39%). He will not fold a half-way decent draw (another 5%). He will fold a missed hand about half the time. (33%).
That gets you about 39% of hands where your equity is about 22%, 5% of hands where your equity is about 70%, and 33% of hands where your equity averages about 80%. For the remainder, you win 5BB (100%). That's about zero EV in my estimation. If you check behind and villain checks the (blank) turn, that makes it more likely he has missed, in my view, and you can put in a non-shove bet to take down the pot.
Thanks for the comments Pete. Yes I realised, when I thought about it afterwards, that shoving the flop was a poor idea here. You are right about the stack sizes - about 25BB or so each as I recall.
I am not a lot of use at cash really, since this game (on the odd occasion when I get eliminated early from the tournament) is virtually the only time I ever play it.
Mind you I think I really should brush up on it, as the standard I have seen in live casinos when I've been playing tournaments has been really awful! Even my game could make money there, if that is what I wanted to play.
yeesh, how the fuck do you find time ? online, live and matched betting !!
and why has pj not enabled his profile ??
yeah pj, i'm down a few buy-ins, nothing like 1500 .... come to think of it, if i was down that much i'd need a second mortgage .... gotta love us micro stakers :)
gl mrK
:-)
dD
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